Arsenal's Best is Yet To Come (Maybe)

It feels as if Arsenal have fallen behind schedule in recent weeks. The reasons for this halt in momentum are perfectly explicable; a combination of difficult fixtures and the absence of important first team players. Arsenal have 44 points after 23 games, which is six or seven points short of where you would expect a title winning team to be at this time of the season. Chelsea had 53 points at this stage of last season while Manchester City had exactly the same points total after 23 games of the 2013/14 season.

A valid criticism you could aim at Arsene Wenger is that his teams rely a bit too heavily on the attributes of a few key individuals to provide tactical balance. The team has struggled to cope without Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla and Francis Coquelin; the qualities they provide have been elucidated in several articles on this website as well as many others.

Ironically though, it is the above list of negatives that give me cause for optimism ahead of the final 15 games of the league season. A glance at Arsenal’s recent history tells you that the team generally puts together a purple patch of 10 or so games at some stage in the season. That hasn’t happened yet this campaign. With injured players returning, I think there’s a fair chance that we are yet to see the best of Arsenal. This of course is an invigorating thought, given that we are only three points behind league leaders Leicester City.

One of the peculiarities of supporting a football team is one’s propensity to feel that the media is misrepresenting your team’s performances; many fans over-do this with talk of ‘agendas’. One refrain that I have objected to this season is the theory that Arsenal have put together a strong season because every other title contender has faltered. The latter tenet of that argument may have some truth in it, but I don’t think Arsenal have got anywhere close to their optimum.

The exception to this being a period from late September through October which saw Arsenal record 3-0 league victories away at Watford and Swansea, home wins over Manchester United and Everton as well as an often neglected 5-2 win away at Leicester. Those five consecutive league wins remain Arsenal’s most consistent stretch of form this season. There was also the added, though not insignificant, bonus of a Champions League win over Bayern Munich. A front six of Coquelin, Cazorla; Ramsey, Özil, Sanchez; Walcott was the foundation of this good run. Arsene Wenger will want to get that team back together as soon as possible. (Many fans despaired over the deployment of Ramsey on the flank, but I think recent games have shown why this may have been for the good of the team). 

If Arsenal can get that team back on the field, there is sound evidence to suggest Arsenal are capable of producing a winning run that might be enough to win them the title. In 2011/12, a 5-2 home win over Tottenham in February proved to be that season’s critical moment; the third of ten straight league wins that saw Arsenal overhaul Spurs and finish 3^rd. That run included impressive away wins at Liverpool and Everton as well a 1-0 home win over eventual champions Manchester City. After a tumultuous first two thirds of that season, Arsenal discovered a better balance tactically with Alex Song and Mikel Arteta shielding the back four and the returning Tomas Rosicky providing his trademark zip and thrust in the final third. Arsenal’s Dutch centre forward wasn’t too shabby either.

The following season, 2012/13 Arsenal needed a similar run of wins to secure their Champions League future after another chaotic start to the season. Once again, a North London Debry proved to be a turning point; Arsenal lost 2-1 at White Hart Lane as their tactic of playing a high line was cruelly exposed by the pace of Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon. This prompted a tactical sea change for the remainder of the season; Arsenal were happy to cede possession to opponents, defending deep and holding a disciplined defensive shape before relying on ‘moments’ to win them the game. It made for soporific viewing at times and many an anxious last ten minutes, but earned Arsenal eight wins in their final ten league games.

2013/14 stands out among recent years as it saw a reversal of the previous two seasons’ pattern: Arsenal started the season exceptionally but faded over the latter stages (in the Premier League, at least). Once again though, the season contained a striking run of consistency. Following an opening day defeat to Aston Villa, Arsenal racked up 11 wins in their next 14 Premier League matches. Injuries to Aaron Ramsey and Theo Walcott hindered them in the second half of that campaign, and it should be noted that the fixture list in the first half of the season was favourable. Nevertheless, it’s another instance of an Arsenal league campaign containing a pronounced ‘purple patch’.

Most recently 2014/15 saw Arsenal produce another strong run of form from January onwards. The basis for this upturn in form was the return of key players from injury such as Laurent Koscienly, Mesut Özil and Olivier Giroud and the improvement of ‘internal solutions’ such as Nacho Monreal, Hector Bellerin and most notably, Francis Coquelin. The rest, I am sure, is perfectly fresh in your memory. Following the News Years’ Day debacle at Southampton, Arsenal won 12 of their next 14 Premier League matches and won a second successive FA Cup.

You could well argue that none of the strong runs of form discussed above were part of a title race and therefore, not produced under such intense pressure. This is a fair point; the pressure of going for a title is indeed difficult to replicate but the pressure of ensuring Champions League football was not insignificant either. Important factors in those strong periods were the return of key players from injury, mid-season tactical tweaks and favourable fixtures.

Arsenal cannot rely on the latter; their run-in is not fiendishly difficult but not straightforward either. Home matches against Swansea, West Brom, Watford, Norwich and Aston Villa are countered by trips to Manchester United, Tottenham, Everton, West Ham and Manchester City. It seems as if Arsenal’s fate will depend on the returns of Coquelin, Cazorla, Sanchez, as well as those of Rosicky, Danny Welbeck and Jack Wilshere to give the team much needed freshness and a better blend of attributes.

The purpose of chronicling Arsenal’s recent domestic history is not just frivolous nostalgia. It demonstrates that you can expect an Arsene Wenger team to produce a substantial winning run at some stage in a 38 game league campaign. Arsenal haven’t produced one yet this season. If they do find form between now and May, there is every chance that they will be champions. If they do not, then you have to be honest and state that Arsenal haven’t performed well enough to warrant that lofty label.

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