Preview: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich - Champions League

When this rematch of last year's pairing was announced, Bayern's manager Pep Guardiola seemed visibly distressed at facing us as the general consensus was that we pose the toughest challenge to the #1 seeds. When the draw was announced, Guardiola admitted that Arsenal is "the most difficult draw...we know what happened last season.''

Last season, of course, saw us lose 1-3 just days after crashing out of the FA Cup, losing at home to Blackburn 0-1. That result may have the season’s lowest ebb as it all all but confirmed another trophy-less season, a point further hammered home by the drubbing Bayern handed down. This season sees us in much-rarer form, even if recent results have reminded us of some of our frailties and the shaky nature of success.

After a tense draw with Man U and a scrappy win over Liverpool, we may not be brimming with confidence, but last year’s first leg feels like a lifetime ago. Last year, we were shambolic, almost comedically so, while Bayern were an indomitable colossus hell-bent on winning the Champions League after finishing second in 2010 and 2012.

This year shows them every bit as dominating, albeit a little less intimidating, what with a weaker Borussia Dortmund and the satisfaction of having finally won the Champions League. This is not to say that they are somehow ripe for the plucking. Their only loss to date came in the Champions League group stage, a 2-3 blip at the Etihad after they had already won their group. In addition to their form, there’s little risk of them underestimating us this time around, not after we very nearly dumped them out of the competition last year. Under Guardiola, Bayern has become more difficult to predict than they were under Heynckes, as he has moved aggressively to adapt his lineups and tactics to his opponents, bolstered by a stable full of players vying for time on the pitch. We may therefore face a very fluid, constantly shifting formations and tactics—not in imitation of his time at Barcelona, where a commitment to the tiki-taka style dominated but in anticipation of an opponent’s strengths or weaknesses.

From our end, the Liverpool match offers a bit of insight in how best to prepare. On Sunday, Monreal and Jenkinson played much more conservatively than Gibbs and Monreal had done at Anfield, and this helped to blunt the threat posed by Suarez and Sterling down the flanks. Ribery and his replacement Shaqiri will both miss the match, so we’ll likely see Thomas Müller there, at least to start. Whereas Liverpool resorted frequently to long balls in hopes of Suarez or Sturridge chasing these down, Bayern will almost certainly adopt a more-varied approach, and keeping a defensive shape will be vital. This matters not just as an issue of stopping Bayern’s attack but in dealing with the high press that causes us so much trouble generally and was such an issue in last year’s first leg. In addition, Bayern had the desire to try to exploit Vermaelen, playing a bit out of position at left-back and with little support from Podolski, overloading that side with Müller, Lahm, and even Kroos making runs at or past Vermaelen. He wasn’t the only one playing out of position as Walcott was chosen to play through the middle, which arguably undermined our own attack because that’s just not a position that plays to Walcott’s skill-set.

It’s therefore encouraging that Arsène’s squad-selection against Liverpool allowed him to rest key players like Sagna, Gibbs, and Giroud. Giroud in particular may well prove to be key as his strength, work-rate, and hold-up play made a significant difference in that second leg and is such a lynchpin to our attack.  Many of us have probably already penciled in a Bayern victory and end to our Champions League adventures for the year, but I almost wonder if our lads haven’t had one eye on this fixture for a while now and are more-ready than our recent results suggest.

Last Three Meetings

• Bayern 0-2 Arsenal (13.03.2013)
• Arsenal 1-3 Bayern  (19.02.2013)
• Arsenal 1-0 Bayern (09.03.2005)

Factfile

• Arsenal and Bayern have met six times with Arsenal winning twice, drawing once, and losing three times.
• Bayern have scored 16 goals in their last four matches.
• Liverpool’s penalty-kick was the first goal Arsenal have conceded at home since 8 December—a run of eight matches.

Injuries

It almost goes without saying that Walcott (knee) and Diaby (knee) are unavailable, but we’ll also go in without Källström (back), Vermaelen (thigh), and Ramsey (thigh). Arteta will have to sit out after drawing a red-card in the loss to Napoli.

Possible Starting XI

Szczesny; Gibbs, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Sagna; Flamini, Rosický; Cazorla, Özil, Gnabry; Giroud

Much as I would to see us claim victory, I don’t quite see it (but am happy to be wrong). I do see us doing much better than a year ago as we’re playing with greater confidence, better organization, and deeper team unity.

GOONERSPHERE'S PREDICTION

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern

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